The Ukrainian war, which started after the invasion of Putin’s Russian troops into Ukraine, is now in its third week of conflict, with no sign of an end to hostilities, despite the ongoing meetings between the two sides.
The big question on everyone’s mind is how long this war can last. Political scientist Francis Fukuyama attempts to answer this question in an article. A Japanese-American, Fukuyama holds a PhD in political science from Harvard University and is a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.
The author shows in his article 12 conclusions or predictions.
1. Russia will be defeated
“Russia is heading for absolute defeat in Ukraine,” Fukuyama says. “Russian planning was incompetent, based on the erroneous assumption that Ukrainians were pro-Russian and that their army would collapse immediately after an invasion,” he adds.
“Russian soldiers wore dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kiev instead of ammunition and additional rations. Putin at this point has committed most of his army to this operation; there are no large reserves of forces he can call upon to add to the battle. Russian troops are trapped on the outskirts of several Ukrainian cities, where they face major supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks,” the author says.
2. Russian collapse, sooner than expected
“The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than occurring slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will evaporate. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be difficult to hold if the north collapses,” Fukuyama predicts.
3. No diplomatic solution in sight
“There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible before this happens. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have suffered at this point,” says Fukuyama.
4. The futility of the UN
“The UN Security Council has once again demonstrated its uselessness. The only useful thing was the vote of the General Assembly, which helps to identify bad or prevaricating actors in the world,” believes the author.
5. NATO’s role so far
“The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were good; they have kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is far better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians alone, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious possibilities for escalation. Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, communications equipment and information sharing.
I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being directed by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine,” Fukuyama argues.
A striking prediction from Francis Fukuyama:
“Russia is heading for outright defeat in Ukraine.”
I interviewed Fukuyama about what that would mean for democracy's future.
"The spirit of 1989 went to sleep, and now it’s being reawakened," he told me:https://t.co/CAb9uqEUQO
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) March 14, 2022
6. The cost being paid by Ukraine
“The cost Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is caused by rockets and artillery, about which neither MiGs nor no-fly zones can do much. The only thing that will stop the killing is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground,” the political scientist reveals.
7. Putin’s future
“Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He receives support because he is perceived as a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?” the author asks.
8. Blow to populism in the world
“The invasion has already done great damage to populists around the world, who before the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and, of course, Donald Trump. The politics of war has exposed their openly authoritarian inclinations,” Fukuyama says.
9. A lesson for China
“The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces over the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which also has no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities as the Russians did in contemplating a future move against Taiwan,” he says.
10. And a lesson for Taiwan
“Let’s hope Taiwan realizes the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done and reinstate compulsory military service. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist,” the political scientist reflects.
11. Turkish drones
“Turkish drones will become best sellers,” Fukuyama reflects.
12. What will happen after a Russian defeat
“A Russian defeat will make possible a ‘new birth of freedom’ and will shake us out of our fear of the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on thanks to a handful of brave Ukrainians,” he concludes.
-Thailand News (TN)
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